robliberal.com

A new Clark grassroots flash ad http://www.wewantwes.com/respect.htm 

Kerry: 41%
Edwards: 17%
Dean: 16%
Clark: 8%
Other: 9%
Undecided: 9%

Conducted 1/26-1/28

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MO040129demprimary.pdf

Josh Marshall On Collapse Of Dean Campaign

Josh Marshall talks about the collapse of the Dean campaign

Frankly, I think we all know that these are the sorts of things campaigns say just a bit before they give up the ghost, focusing on ‘winning delegates’ rather than actually winning any contests — sort of like the hapless dry goods salesman who loses money on every sale but thinks he’s going to make it up in volume.

Clark Launches True Values Tour Of The South And West

In addition to the departure of campaign manager Joe Trippi today, several stories on the wire indicate the Dean campaign may be having money problems. CNN said campaign staff have been told they will be facing pay cuts while ABC reports the campaign may not be able to pay staff for at least 2 weeks. There are still reposts on the wire today as well about unpaid bills in Iowa that were first reported by WHO-TV.  The Boston Globe reports the Dean campaign took all advertising off the air in the February 3 states last week in an attempt to conserve funds.

Delegate totals for February 3 primaries

A report in the Washington Times claims that a Republican who is a Bush supporter was selected to head the Dean campaign in Central Mississippi.

A Republican lawyer and supporter of President Bush who infiltrated a meeting of Howard Dean supporters has been nominated to lead a local campaign for the Democratic presidential candidate. “I’m basically now head of Central Mississippians for Dean,” J. Kevin Broughton told John McCaslin, whose “Inside the Beltway” column is published by the Washington Times.

First Read looks at neither Dean or Kerry having any clear wins in any of the seven states on February 3. The New York Daily News reports on Kerry’s risky plans to run an ad blitz in all of the 7 states.

MSNBC embed Marisa Buchanan reports on Clark

Clark, before learning of his third-place finish, per embed Marisa Buchanan: “Four months later, we came into New Hampshire as one of the elite eight. Tonight, we leave New Hampshire as one of the final four… I leave New Hampshire a smarter, better, stronger, and even more determined candidate.” Buchanan says the massaging of Clark’s message continues, with an aide advising that Clark will talk more about tax cuts and emphasize the tough economic circumstances he lived under during his childhood and most of his adult life. He’ll likely hit these themes in Oklahoma today.

ABC’s The Note reports money may be an issue for Dean (who did not accept matching funds)who may only have about $5 million left to spend.

I will be posting some stories here since the Kos server problems prevent more than a few posts a day at my blog at http://rob.dailykos.com

This is how I would rank the candidates in terms of who will be the probable Democratic nominee.

John Kerry is now the frontrunner. That puts him in a situation where he will now have to meet the expectations of the polls and the press as he competes in the South and West which may not be an easy task. Kerry moved up in post Iowa polls and will get a bounce from New Hampshire. His gains in post Iowa polls were largely from Dean supporters who have switched. Kerry lacks a large national grassroots organization and had difficulty fundraising before Iowa which makes February 3rd a much larger challenge for him than Iowa and New Hampshire. If he can duplicate Iowa and New Hampshire wins in the South and West he will likely be the nominee. If he stumbles he runs the risk of losing ground to Clark who has positioned himself for the long haul and to Edwards who will be seeking an opening.         

Wesley Clark is the only candidate on the air and on the ground in all of the February 3 states and in some of the later February and March states as well, Clark essentially launched a national campaign while the other candidates were still in Iowa. That has resulted in good polling numbers as well as good fundraising abilities. He is the one candidate well positioned to become the “anti-Kerry”. If Dean drops out at some point he also may benefit because he would be the only remaining anti-war candidate left in the race. New Hampshire exit polls showed experience and electability as two of the factors that drew votes to Kerry. On a more even playing field in the South and West those votes will likely be split by Kerry and Clark.   

John Edwards failed to get much of a bounce in New Hampshire from his Iowa showing. While he is still ahead in South Carolina polls, his fourth place showing in New Hampshire may make it more difficult for him to find a way to rise above Kerry and Clark in the polls. One area which will be a serious vulnerability for Edwards is his lack of experience since he has not even completed one term in the Senate. His charisma and communication skills make him a good candidate if he finds the right opening to get past Kerry and Clark.

Howard Dean is in the most difficult position of any of the candidates. His showings in Iowa and New Hampshire and his now famous Iowa speech have shaken the very foundation of his campaign. He has been unable to expand his base of supporters and will now have an even more difficult time doing so as the race moves to the South and West where the demographics are more likely to favor other candidates. His post Iowa poll numbers in many of the February 3 states were already well below Kerry, Clark, and Edwards. At this point his best chance to become the nominee would be if the Kerry campaign implodes and he can figure out how to  get past Clark and Edwards to pick up the pieces.

Democratic presidential candidate Wesley Clark will launch his True Values Tour of the February 3 primary states on Wednesday. Clark finished in 3rd place in New Hampshire ahead of John Edwards and Joe Lieberman.

While Clark’s campaign spent months building strong grassroots and organizational support in the February 3rd primary states and beyond, other campaigns are now scrambling to decide where to compete. This broad-based support, along with his continuing fundraising momentum, makes Clark a formidable contender throughout the primary season. “The $2 million train to New Hampshire,” his largest online fundraiser to date, pulled into the station a day ahead of schedule. Although he was the last candidate to enter the race, Clark is on track and picking up steam. As Clark begins his “True Values Tour,” February 3rd states represent an opportunity for Clark to show his appeal to the broad Democratic base. Veterans, seniors, minorities and Southerners are responding to Clark’s plans for Families First Tax Reform, educational opportunity and affordable health care access. His life and leadership experience are inspiring voters across the country as his focus on “True Values” — faith, family, patriotism, and inclusiveness attract them to his campaign.

Clark is well positioned in the post Iowa polls in all of the February 3rd states and has ads on the air along with ground organization. His most recent fundraising goal of $2 million was met ahead of schedule.

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/primaries/by_state/NH_Page.html?SITE=YAHOOELN&SECTION=POLITICS#TOP

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/vote2004/primaries/nh.html

http://nhpr.org/static/programs/specials/election_2004/results.php 

http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/2792974/detail.html